Strategies

Sequence of Returns Risk

The risk that the order and timing of investment returns will negatively impact the total value of an account, especially dangerous for retirees starting withdrawals.

Reviewed by DivAgent Research Team
Updated Jan 2026

Sequence of Returns Risk — At a Glance

Definition

Losing 20% in Year 1 of retirement is much worse than Year 20. Bad timing can break a portfolio permanently.

Risk Level
High
Commonly Seen In
Total return portfolios during market downturns
Warning Sign
Large withdrawals during a bear market early in retirement (The "Danger Zone")
Key Metric
Cash Buffer (months of coverage)
Pro Tip

A 24-month cash buffer (T1/SGOV) is the best shield against sequence risk - live on cash, don't sell depressed assets.

Sequence of returns risk is the risk that the timing of withdrawals from a portfolio coincides with a market downturn. While a portfolio's average return over 30 years might be positive, poor returns in the first few years of retirement can significantly increase the probability of running out of money.

Why Timing Matters

If you are contributing to a portfolio, market drops are actually helpful (you buy more shares). However, when you are withdrawing, market drops are devastating because you must sell more shares to meet your income needs, leaving fewer shares to participate in the eventual recovery.

The Cash Buffer Solution

Retirees can mitigate sequence risk by maintaining a "cash buffer" (typically 12-24 months of expenses) in stable assets like Treasury bills or money market funds. This allows them to avoid selling stocks or ETFs when their prices are low.

DivAgent Educational Standards

This definition is part of the DivAgent Income Academy curriculum. Our glossary is designed to bridge the gap between institutional jargon and retail investor understanding. Each term is reviewed by our Research Team for accuracy, specifically in the context of:

  • Tax implications (Ordinary vs. Qualified)
  • Impact on Total Return calculations
  • Relevance to Option-Income strategies
  • Risk assessment in a retirement portfolio

*While we strive for precision, financial terminology can evolve. Always verify definitions with official regulatory sources (SEC, IRS) when making tax or legal decisions.

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