All-Weather Conservative vs Test Aaron

How $10,000 would have grown in each — compared across total return, income, NAV, and risk.

Compared over their common history since Feb 2023.

Judge on

Window

All-Weather Conservative

Low riskLow reward

4.6%

yield · $38/mo per $10k

WinnerTest Aaron

High riskMedium reward

7.7%

yield · $64/mo per $10k

Test Aaron wins on total return (2–0, full common history).

Growth of $10,000 (dividends reinvested)

All-Weather ConservativeTest AaronDistributions reinvested · hypothetical, fixed weights

Total Return0–2

27.5%

Total Ret.

51.2%

7.6%

CAGR

13.2%

Income0–3

4.6%

Yield

7.7%

$38

Income

$64

0.59

Steadiness

0.34

Principal / NAVeven

7.9%

NAV

40.9%

-9.1%

Max DD

-11.4%

Risk3–1

11.0

Risk-Adj.

4.0

1.24

Sortino

1.90

8.3%

Volatility

10.1%

1.4

Safety

3.6

Holdings overlap

20% overlap

All-Weather Conservative only

SGOV 20%BIL 15%HDV 15%XLU 15%VYMI 15%

Shared

SCHD 20%

Test Aaron only

JEPI 40%QQQH 40%

The risk-first read

All-Weather Conservative wins the risk-adjusted call: 27.5% total return at a meaningfully lower risk tier (1.4 vs 3.6). You're paid more per unit of risk — and Test Aaron's extra tier exposure isn't buying enough return to justify it.

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Run your own matchups

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Growth is a hypothetical, fixed-weight backtest with distributions reinvested at ex-date since Feb 2023 — no fees or taxes; past performance doesn't predict future results. How these numbers are computed. Not investment advice.